{"id":6565,"date":"2024-10-10T20:57:56","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T17:57:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/?p=6565"},"modified":"2026-11-09T15:46:07","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T13:46:07","slug":"october-7-war-gamblers-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/?p=6565","title":{"rendered":"October 7 War Gambler's Dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group od is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"od-tldr\"><b>In brief<\/b><ul><li>Israel's decision-making in the October 7 war is not a democratic process.<\/li><li>Hein Goemans showed that leaders of hybrid regimes tend to expand their war aims when battlefield results are bad, fearing that even a small loss will bring punishment, as it does for dictators.<\/li><li>In World War I, the worse Germany's situation became, the more it expanded its war aims.<\/li><li>In the October 7 war, Israel seems only to raise the stakes, even after successes.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Longtime readers know that I believe Israel is backsliding democratically, and that there are many signs of it. But even if you disagree, and I know many do, Israel's national security decision-making process is not typical of democracies, in which all cabinet members bear collective responsibility both for decisions and for their outcomes. The evidence is extensive and varied, and I have written about it quite a lot:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"od-list\"><li><b>A cabinet that was not convened<\/b>In the year before the war, the prime minister did not convene the ministerial committee on national security affairs (the security cabinet), despite several warnings from the security services that the risk of war was rising.<\/li><li><b>Ministers who refused to hear the military chiefs<\/b>Government ministers refused to meet the heads of Military Intelligence and the Operations Directorate before passing the law abolishing the reasonableness standard, depriving themselves of information directly related to the responsibility the law places on them.<\/li><li><b>A cabinet that did not discuss security<\/b>Apart from the warnings of the security establishment, the cabinet hardly met to discuss security issues at all, so ministers did not discuss, understand or learn the issues at hand. Nor were they interested in security briefings on the various fronts.<\/li><li><b>A National Security Council run by a political loyalist<\/b>The national security adviser and head of the National Security Council is a political operative loyal to the government, not a civil servant responsible for the staff work behind national assessments. His assessments were increasingly charlatanism and an utter failure by the test of results, because their purpose was to protect the prime minister politically rather than to serve the public.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"548\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-19.45.04.jpeg?resize=548%2C807&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5646\" style=\"width:417px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-19.45.04.jpeg?w=548&amp;ssl=1 548w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-19.45.04.jpeg?resize=204%2C300&amp;ssl=1 204w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 548px) 100vw, 548px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile od-pair is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:55.2%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"818\" height=\"732\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/%E2%80%8F%E2%80%8F%D7%A6%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%9D-%D7%9E%D7%A1%D7%9A-559.png?resize=818%2C732&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5638\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/%E2%80%8F%E2%80%8F%D7%A6%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%9D-%D7%9E%D7%A1%D7%9A-559.png?w=818&amp;ssl=1 818w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/%E2%80%8F%E2%80%8F%D7%A6%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%9D-%D7%9E%D7%A1%D7%9A-559.png?resize=300%2C268&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/%E2%80%8F%E2%80%8F%D7%A6%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%9D-%D7%9E%D7%A1%D7%9A-559.png?resize=768%2C687&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 818px) 100vw, 818px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:44.8%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"927\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-2.png?resize=927%2C1024&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5637\" style=\"width:215px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-2.png?resize=927%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 927w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-2.png?resize=272%2C300&amp;ssl=1 272w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-2.png?resize=768%2C848&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-2.png?w=1080&amp;ssl=1 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 927px) 100vw, 927px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the war, too, there is ample evidence that the prime minister makes decisions without proper authority. There are serious concerns that transcripts of security meetings were altered or not recorded at all. Military chiefs were barred from recording meetings, even though the purpose of recording is to allow decisions to be implemented more precisely. And the cabinet has convened rarely compared with the practice of past prime ministers, because it is large and leaks constantly, on an unprecedented scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, I argued that even if you completely reject my view that Israel is in democratic decline, there are enough signs that wartime decision-making here does not resemble decision-making processes as the research knows them from other democracies at war over the past hundred years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">War as a breakdown in bargaining<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The realist approach in the research literature sees the outbreak of war as a breakdown in bargaining between the parties, which can stem from several factors: a misreading of information and, as a result, a misjudgment of the balance of power; or a commitment problem, which can lead states to go to war today for fear that the balance of power will shift against them in the future (as with the German attack on the Eastern Front in 1941, or the Sinai War following the Czech arms deal).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-ast-global-color-6-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">The realist approach has many limitations. It struggles to explain why wars do not break out, why war broke out in some conflicts and not in others, why many wars drag on long past the point of exhaustion even when the battlefield has been deadlocked for a long time, and more. Still, despite these limitations, understanding war as one tool in a state's toolbox for managing conflicts and negotiations is an important insight, one that helps us approach wars in a way that makes for better assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"864\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.48.01.jpeg?resize=1024%2C864&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5626\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.48.01.jpeg?resize=1024%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.48.01.jpeg?resize=300%2C253&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.48.01.jpeg?resize=768%2C648&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.48.01.jpeg?w=1215&amp;ssl=1 1215w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"410\" height=\"615\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image.png?resize=410%2C615&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5631\" style=\"width:301px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image.png?w=410&amp;ssl=1 410w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image.png?resize=200%2C300&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 410px) 100vw, 410px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hybrid regimes and &quot;the gambler's dilemma&quot;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For many years, the research ignored the influence of domestic factors on the conduct of war and treated states as &quot;unitary&quot; actors in the international system. From the 1990s, however, the approach changed, and studies began to appear on how different regime types affect the way wars are fought, the willingness to go to war, and the way wars end. One of the first books was Hein Goemans's War &amp; Punishment, published in 2000. It examined how hybrid (semi-democratic) regimes conduct wars and set their war aims, compared with dictatorships and democracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-ast-global-color-6-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">One of the book's central arguments is that in hybrid regimes, the leadership expands its war aims in light of negative results on the battlefield, because even in the case of a small loss or a draw, <strong>it fears not only losing power, as usually happens in democracies too, but also that defeat will bring punishment,<\/strong> which does not happen to democratic leaders who are simply replaced. Dictators, by contrast, usually stay in power after a draw, and even after a severe defeat the research finds that if they went to war after many years in power, their chances of staying in power increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fear of punishment at the end of a war leads soft dictators to initiate fewer wars and to get drawn into fewer conflicts that could escalate into war. While dictatorships go to war once every 33 years and democracies once every 114 years, soft dictatorships go to war once every 164 years, and this includes Putin's wars before the invasion of Ukraine, when he was still considered one. As for military tensions below the threshold of war, soft dictators get drawn into them once every 7.7 years, compared with once every 2.9 years for dictatorships of fear and once every 5.6 years for democracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"od-stats\"><div class=\"od-stat\"><div class=\"n\">33<\/div><div class=\"l\">years on average between wars for dictatorships<\/div><\/div><div class=\"od-stat\"><div class=\"n\">114<\/div><div class=\"l\">years on average for democracies<\/div><\/div><div class=\"od-stat\"><div class=\"n\">164<\/div><div class=\"l\">years on average for soft dictatorships<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"0B0sEo2Je4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/?p=4829\">\u05d3\u05d9\u05e7\u05d8\u05d8\u05d5\u05e8\u05d9\u05dd \u05d7\u05dc\u05e7\u05dc\u05e7\u05d9\u05dd (Spin Dictators) \u05e4\u05e8\u05e7 \u05d0': \u05dc\u05de\u05d4 \u05d7\u05dc \u05d4\u05e9\u05d9\u05e0\u05d5\u05d9<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u201c\u05d3\u05d9\u05e7\u05d8\u05d8\u05d5\u05e8\u05d9\u05dd \u05d7\u05dc\u05e7\u05dc\u05e7\u05d9\u05dd (Spin Dictators) \u05e4\u05e8\u05e7 \u05d0&amp;apos;: \u05dc\u05de\u05d4 \u05d7\u05dc \u05d4\u05e9\u05d9\u05e0\u05d5\u05d9\u201d \u2014 \u05e9\u05d0\u05dc\u05d4 \u05d0\u05e1\u05d8\u05e8\u05d8\u05d2\u05d9\u05ea\" src=\"https:\/\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/?p=4829&amp;embed=true#?secret=x7xp2JQha5#?secret=0B0sEo2Je4\" data-secret=\"0B0sEo2Je4\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The case study: Germany in World War I<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"562\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.50.58.jpeg?resize=1024%2C562&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.50.58.jpeg?resize=1024%2C562&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.50.58.jpeg?resize=300%2C165&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.50.58.jpeg?resize=768%2C421&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.50.58.jpeg?resize=1320%2C724&amp;ssl=1 1320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-10-10-at-16.50.58.jpeg?w=1403&amp;ssl=1 1403w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Goemans examines all the cases in which hybrid regimes went to war and shows that, at a significantly higher rate, the leaders of such regimes were not only replaced at the end of wars that did not end in victory, but were also &quot;punished.&quot;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The case study detailed in the book is World War I. It examines how the war aims of four of its main participants changed (Germany, Russia, France and Britain) and shows the difference in their decision-making in light of the information coming in from the battlefield. All of them assessed their situation consistently, and there is detailed documentation that allows their decision-making to be analyzed. In this post I will briefly summarize what emerges from the German leadership's decision-making (and to keep things from running too long, I will focus only on the middle of the war).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote has-ast-global-color-1-background-color has-background has-medium-font-size\" style=\"border-width:5px;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0\"><blockquote><p>&quot;Total victory and the destruction of our enemies in a decisive battle appear impossible, according to the reports of the army chiefs. This situation will remain much the same through the winter and can be tolerated politically for a long time, but I do not see a decisive military victory as feasible in the future. As far as I can judge, such a victory is possible only if we can extract our armies from the east and throw them onto the French front\u2026 If we fail to detach Russia, we will not be able to demonstrate military superiority over any of our enemies.&quot; (Bethmann Hollweg to Zimmermann, November 1914; translated from the Hebrew)<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Late 1915: Germany's assessment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>At the end of 1915, the German leadership held a structured assessment of the war,<\/strong> which concluded that England was Germany's main enemy, seeking to bring about Germany's defeat with the help of the Russian, French and Italian armies. If Germany defeated these three armies, England would likely understand that it had no chance of defeating the Germans and would agree to give up its ambitions. Russia's internal problems were expected to make it harder for it to keep fighting, and the assessment was that it would therefore wind down its military operations relatively soon. Germany should therefore focus its strategy on an offensive against France (at Verdun). The offensive would not decide the war against the French, but its goal would be to convince the French public that the cost of continuing the war was too high, which would lead the French leadership to accept Germany's demands. At the same time, the Germans assessed that if the war continued into 1917, their situation might deteriorate as the costs of the war soared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"180\" height=\"225\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-3.png?resize=180%2C225&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5639\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, Germany changed its war aims. It was willing to scale them back toward Russia in order to achieve peace, but expanded its other demands, both in the west and in the east (mainly regarding Poland), to convince the public bearing the cost of the war that it would still bring gains after all the sacrifices made, and that it was worth continuing for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1916: a year of disappointments<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In practice, in 1916 Germany's results on the battlefield fell short of its expectations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Operation Gericht (known as the Battle of Verdun), launched on February 21, 1916, ended in July with some German gains. But after the French counteroffensive that began on October 24 and ended in December, it became clear that the Germans had failed in their goal of inflicting losses on the French that they could not replace, and German losses were almost as high as French ones: 434,000 for Germany versus 541,000 for France<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On July 1, England launched the offensive on the Somme and proved to the Germans that it was willing to pay a price for victory, contrary to the German assessment that the English were only using the European armies to win<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In June, the Russians launched an offensive on the Eastern Front and proved to the Germans that they still had military capability. At the end of this offensive, Germany assessed that the Russians had become optimistic, since they had not needed to commit their whole army and their losses were relatively small<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In August, Romania attacked the Germans, which led the chancellor to conclude that the situation was bad<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On top of all this, the war at sea produced only mixed results and heightened tensions with the United States. There was some positive news too, but there is no dispute that Germany's overall balance for 1916 fell short of its expectations, and it also included the beginnings of civilian discontent. By the end of the year, the German assessment was that the chances of winning on the European continent were slim, which led to a shift to a defensive military strategy on the Western Front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Precisely then: expanding the war aims<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet even though it was clear to the Germans that their situation in the war was deteriorating, and their expectations for the future were less optimistic, the Germans formally expanded their war aims, in a way the German public knew about:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Recognition of Poland and its annexation to Austria-Hungary<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Annexation of territory from Poland and Lithuania, including natural resources and more favorable borders with Russia<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A trade agreement with Russia that would give Germany advantages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Guarantees from the King of Belgium, or alternatively the annexation of part of Belgium<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The incorporation of Luxembourg into the German Empire<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Population transfer from Alsace-Lorraine and further border adjustments in Germany's favor<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The transfer of colonies in Africa to Germany<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The gamble: unrestricted submarine warfare<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The change in assessment led Germany to launch unrestricted submarine warfare in the Atlantic, despite understanding how great the risk was. This decision did not stem from a German assessment that the offensive had a good chance of success. It was a gamble born of the understanding that a victor's peace could not be won on land, and that continuing the war would not allow Germany's ruling elite to preserve the political status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"od-thesis wp-block-paragraph\">The offensive at sea was a desperate move meant to raise the stakes in order to win an achievement that would bring a less bad peace, one that would spare the semi-repressive regime the political punishment it could expect if it failed to win the war and the war ended in a limited defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"707\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/First_atlantic_battle_merchant_loss_chart.jpg?resize=1024%2C707&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5634\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/First_atlantic_battle_merchant_loss_chart.jpg?resize=1024%2C707&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/First_atlantic_battle_merchant_loss_chart.jpg?resize=300%2C207&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/First_atlantic_battle_merchant_loss_chart.jpg?resize=768%2C530&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/First_atlantic_battle_merchant_loss_chart.jpg?w=1050&amp;ssl=1 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Buying public support<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-ast-global-color-6-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">Throughout the war, the German leadership knew it would have to buy public support for the day after the war in one of two ways: democratization that would change the leadership's privileges, or the gains Germany could expect after the war. It chose the second, and as the war went on and its chances of success dwindled, it increased its promises of postwar gains in order to keep buying public support for the war. If citizens were rewarded for their sacrifice, they would see the situation in a more positive light.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-ast-global-color-6-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">This rested on two principles. First, territory gained after victory could serve as a reward for regime loyalists, including its natural resources. Second, the understanding that after the war taxes on the public would have to rise considerably, given the cost of the war, led to the aspiration that these taxes would be imposed on the citizens of Germany's enemies in the peace treaties signed at the end, which increased the reparations demands in Germany's war aims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"567\" height=\"364\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Zeebrugge-Raid.jpg?resize=567%2C364&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5633\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Zeebrugge-Raid.jpg?w=567&amp;ssl=1 567w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Zeebrugge-Raid.jpg?resize=300%2C193&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Aerial photo of the British ships scuttled at the entrance to the port of Zeebrugge in an attempt to block it<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">And what this means for Israel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Israel we see that as the costs of the war grow, war aims that were ambitious from the outset keep growing. The cost of the war can be seen in the cuts in the 2025 budget proposal that hit the middle class, which bears both the burden of fighting the war and will also bear its economic burden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We want to dismantle not only Hamas's military capabilities but also its governing capabilities (although nothing has been done toward that). Where at first the talk was only of pushing Hezbollah back from the border, there are now those who speak of reshaping Lebanese politics, of hopes that Hezbollah will be fully disarmed, and of Israel holding a security zone in Lebanon (as if that would not lead to a protracted conflict). The Iranian missile attack is seen as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to destroy Iran's nuclear project, even though it was already clear more than a decade ago that Israel cannot destroy it, and even to bring about regime change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"od-key\"><div class=\"k\">The bottom line<\/div><p>As the costs of the war soar, the leadership raises expectations that were set high from the start, because it needs public support to keep fighting. This despite the fact that the successes on the battlefield do not show Israel getting closer to its war aims, or to fully removing the threats it faces. This is what Goemans expected in hybrid regimes, which I believe is Israel's case. For the current government, the price of losing power is higher than in any previous case in the country's history.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"od-more\"><h3>Original version<\/h3><ul><li>This post was first published in Hebrew: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/?p=5625\">\u05d3\u05d9\u05dc\u05de\u05ea \u05d4\u05de\u05d4\u05de\u05e8 \u05e9\u05dc \u05de\u05dc\u05d7\u05de\u05ea \u05d4\u05e9\u05d1\u05e2\u05d4 \u05d1\u05d0\u05d5\u05e7\u05d8\u05d5\u05d1\u05e8<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"od-author\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Strategic-question-Logo-Final-1-e1606895643365.png?ssl=1\" alt=\"Strategic Question\"><div><b>Omer Dank<\/b><p>Lt. Col. (res.) and navigator in the Israeli Air Force. Researcher of war termination and security, working in strategic planning.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hein Goemans showed that leaders of hybrid regimes expand their war aims when the battlefield turns against them. Germany in World War I did exactly that. Is Israel doing the same?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5640,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>October 7 War Gambler&#039;s Dilemma - \u05e9\u05d0\u05dc\u05d4 \u05d0\u05e1\u05d8\u05e8\u05d8\u05d2\u05d9\u05ea<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.omerdank-strategy.com\/?p=6565\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"he_IL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"October 7 War Gambler&#039;s Dilemma - \u05e9\u05d0\u05dc\u05d4 \u05d0\u05e1\u05d8\u05e8\u05d8\u05d2\u05d9\u05ea\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hein Goemans showed that leaders of hybrid regimes expand their war aims when the battlefield turns against them. 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