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Misjudging the Balance of Power with Iran

The Iranians succeeded in shaping the strategic issues the war was fought over: the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to the global economy and the Gulf states. The ceasefire reflected how both sides understood the balance of power the war had made clear.

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October 7 War Gambler's Dilemma

Hein Goemans showed that leaders of hybrid regimes expand their war aims when the battlefield turns against them. Germany in World War I did exactly that. Is Israel doing the same?

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